Competitive pressure and development changes of domestic battery factories
According to data published online, the ranking of battery factories in different years from 2015 to 2018 will vary slightly depending on the company's shipments and installed capacity. But looking at the overall trend, the market concentration of the two giants will not change in the next 5 or 10 years. In the past ten years, with the development of the power battery industry, the technical routes of square, flexible packaging and cylindrical have shown a three-pronged trend, and major battery manufacturers have rushed to seize market share.
After the Waterma incident, the market share began to decline. Square batteries like CATL and BYD gained absolute advantage, and soft-packaged batteries were catching up with each other. In 2018, the number of soft bags for new energy vehicles increased rapidly, with 7.5GW installed, an increase of 60.73% over the same period last year and accounting for 13% of the total installed capacity. And the total amount of soft pack batteries installed by the top ten enterprises accounted for 83%, which is also in line with the trend of further concentration of resources in the hands of a few people. The top ten software package companies are: Funeng Technology, National Energy Battery, Carnegie New Energy, Wanxiang 123, Thornton New Energy, Weihong Power, Gitwick Power, Ningde Times, United Shili, Tianjin New Energy.
From the perspective of the technical route, the reason for the flexible packaging may be that the flexible packaging is safer and has a higher energy density. From the perspective of structural design, the layout method can flexibly match different group requirements. In addition, the thickness of the battery core can be designed to be very thin, and the specific surface area can have a strong uniform heat dissipation and heat dissipation capacity, which ensures the safety of thermal management.
According to statistics from the Research Department of Power Battery Company, domestic power battery companies reached their peak in 2016. The main reason is that the demand for power batteries exceeds the capacity of the entire industry. At that time, the gross profit of power batteries was still at a relatively high level, and many companies were facing headwinds. However, after the false subsidies, as the country continues to update and improve the subsidy policy, the subsidy amount has also been reduced and the technical requirements have also increased. Previously, with the development of commercial vehicles and special vehicles, some leading companies in the industry have entered a period of slow growth, and their market share has also been declining. Coupled with various downstream cost pressures, starting from 2017, the number of power battery companies is gradually decreasing.
Those companies that have failed to truly occupy a certain share of the new energy vehicle battery industry after several years of ups and downs can only withdraw from the battery business, restart 3c or enter energy storage. Other companies that did not foresee many opportunities also have early deployment of electric two-wheel, three-wheel, low-speed vehicles and forklifts. After the introduction of the mandatory national standard (gb19761-2017) of the "E-bike Safety Technical Specification", lithium batteries will cause an outbreak in these areas. Just like the two giants in the lead-acid field, those power battery companies that have been transformed still have the opportunity to become the dominant players in this field.
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